4H

Definition / Formula

Normalised spread between the EMA 50 and the EMA 200 of 4-hour closes, expressed in standard deviations. The app calls this value Z_Macro.

x        = ln(EMA50) - ln(EMA200)
Z_Macro  = x / ewma_sigma(x, n = 200)

ewma_sigma = exponentially weighted standard deviation of x around its own
             weighted mean (weight 1/200 per bar), never below 0.0005

Bars required: 232 closed 4-hour bars. Below that the column reports no data. The bar that is still forming is never included.

Data window: the latest 500 closed 4-hour bars. Each EMA starts from the simple average of its first 50 or 200 closes, so the value depends on this 500-bar window.

Related fields shown on hover: the regime state and Z_Macro (ZM).

Z_Macro divides the spread by how much that spread has varied around its own average on this coin, weighted to roughly the last 200 bars. A reading of +2 therefore means “unusually large for this coin”, on any coin. It is not a percentage distance.

UI Breakdown

4H column, every state, labelled

The cell is a strip of nine LEDs. Exactly one is lit. Its position is the signed magnitude of Z_Macro.

index    0     1     2     3     4     5     6     7     8
        tip  bear  bear  bear centre bull  bull  bull  tip
|Z|    >=3.0 >=1.8 >=1.0 >=0.4  <0.4 >=0.4 >=1.0 >=1.8 >=3.0

Thresholds are 0.4, 1.0, 1.8 and 3.0. The sign of Z_Macro selects the side. The outermost LED on either side uses the tip colour.

The hover card reads, for example, State BULL · ZM +1.4. The card shows ZM to one decimal. The LED uses ZM to two decimals, so a ZM of -0.39 reads ZM -0.4 in the card while the centre LED is lit.

Field	Measures	Reading
State	Regime word from ZM, rules below	BULL, BEAR or NEUTRAL
ZM	Z_Macro: EMA 50 against EMA 200	Structural trend. Plus means EMA 50 above EMA 200. This is the value that moves the LED.

State follows these rules:

ZM must rise above +1.0 to enter BULL, or fall below -1.0 to enter BEAR.
It returns to NEUTRAL only when ZM comes back to ±0.4 or inside it.
A state holds for at least 3 bars before it can change. A crossing that happens inside those 3 bars does not change the state later; the state waits for the next crossing.
The rules run on every closed bar of the 500-bar window and use ZM before rounding.

Because of the entry and exit bands, State and the LED can disagree. ZM at +0.7 can still read BULL, since it entered above +1.0 and has not yet fallen back inside ±0.4. The card describes the current structure. It is not an entry or exit signal.

Control	Action	Effect
LED strip above the column	click LEDs	multi-select on the lit LED
Column header	click	off → bull → bear → off, outranks every other sort

Value Ranges

Value Band	Status	Visual Appearance
abs(Z) below 0.4	EMA50 close to EMA200	Centre LED, neutral colour
Z at or above 0.4	EMA50 above EMA200	One LED right of centre
Z at or above 1.0	EMA50 above EMA200	Two LEDs right of centre
Z at or above 1.8	EMA50 above EMA200	Three LEDs right of centre
Z at or above 3.0	Extreme spread, upper side	Rightmost LED, tip colour
Z at or below -1.0	EMA50 below EMA200	Two LEDs left of centre
Z at or below -3.0	Extreme spread, lower side	Leftmost LED, tip colour
Fewer than 232 closed bars	Insufficient history	Em dash